Monday, April 23, 2012

GDX/GDXJ-Gold Miners

I covered GDX Friday and the possibility it was setting up a volatility bounce , one of the things I was looking for was the bearish triangle to break down below GDX $46, that has clearly happened, that was to be the head fake trigger event. To be clear, if you have not read Friday's analysis, you should, I AM NOT bullish on GDX, but do see a potential quick long trade, which I would consider speculative. I would be looking to use calls for a short trade of 1-3 days maybe.

 This 5 day chart of GDX is why I can't be bullish on GDX for anything more than a volatility shakeout, but that still may be a worthwhile trade.

 Here is the break of $46 described in Friday's post linked above, this is what I was looking for to happen to set a bear trap, all we need is some positive divergences confirming the bear trap.

 GDX 1 min is showing a very recent and so far fairly strong 1 mi positive divergence, I would like to see a pullback in GDX intraday with the divergence strengthening before starting a Call position there.

The stronger trade may be the Junior gold miners, GDXJ, the divergence here is much sharper.

I'll continue to update the possible entry, a 'V" reversal is not often seen so I'm hoping we get a pullback with confirmation the divergence is expanding.

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