Once again, like yesterday afternoon, the market is losing momentum is what looks like a desperate mov to the upside. This doesn't look at all like an organic risk on environment, but rather like a struggle to move higher as if it were on a timetable with some head winds, I'll look at the risk assets to see what those headwinds are. As the candles get smaller and smaller intraday, it looks like there's been some more support anted up specifically in ES. After the risk assets we'll take a look at AAPL, but the momentum stocks like PCLN are using this time well to reach the maximum emotional levels we have talked about (fear for short, greed for longs). This is why the market moves in such extremes (other than the volatility associated with tops), the moves in the market are no longer about a discounting mechanism, trying to find fair value for a stock, but purely emotional manipulation, head fakes, bear and bull traps, etc. I wonder if there are any fundamental value investors out there anymore? If so, I wonder what their portfolios look like.
ES was losing momentum to the upside, 3C wasn't showing any support, rather leading negative, then there appears to be a move to lend support. It is only noticeable in ES.
The order I chose is first target areas, then midterm charts intraday charts to reduce noise, then the effect on the 15 min and finally what the intraday 1 min chart looks like.
For the DIA, it has hit several levels needed to cast the April 10th move in doubt, the only place really it has left is a new high which would be good for bringing longs in, although from looking at the flow of domestic equity funds, it seems even dumb money is not buying the ponzi anymore. Note volume in all of these chart falling off.
The 5 min here continues to look bad, the opening gap was a pretty decent sell area, we are at resistance in that same area with a bullish looking ascending triangle, it will be interesting to see if this triangle is a bull trap, the leading negative divergence continues as DIA reaches the opening levels. The price percentage gain in most of the averages is taking on a churning feel, although volume would need to increase dramatically, which could happen if we saw what appeared to be a strong breakout from today's triangle.
The 15 min chart is a clear mess, at the worst level for any bounce over the last 3 months, but note the volatility of this bounce and how much further it has travelled compared to the previous ones, again a function of increased volatility and desperation to get that (what I firmly believe will be) one last shakeout move and bull trap.
Intraday, the DIA looks to be one of the worst negative divergences, similar to yesterday in the DIA/IWM.
IWM price levels and this is why I have thought the IWM is less important as the price levels are pretty far to get a real shakeout. The IWM is such a mess I don't think bulls would find any credibility in any move other than a new high. What is telling about the IWM is it should be the leader of a risk one move and outperform all of the other averages. Volume is also falling off here.
IWM 5 min probably needs no commentary.
The 30 min is in a leading negative position
Like yesterday, the 1 min IWM/DIA are looking the worst. Do you see what I mean about the look of desperation in the move today, very parabolic moves up, but the candles are very small, no real strength in price when you view the actual individual candles, just a very thin looking market.
QQQ I think need to at least break above the red trendline, AAPL is not helpful today. There's also a gap area in yellow that would be helpful. Volume is falling off.
QQQ 5 min, much like yesterday in the IWM/DIA, look at how wobbly the price trend is filled with bearish candles, this looks a lot like those dog tail moves I mentioned in IBM that all failed with big gaps to the downside.
QQQ 15 min lagged for most of the bounce since April 10th until we identified this 15 min positive divergence before AAPL earnings, it is still in line, so I'm guessing they aren't putting too much pressure on the Q's right now, at least until they break above the basic support line all of the other averages have crossed days ago.
QQQ 1 min losing momentum in the 1 min chart.
SPY, the $140 level was an accomplishment, the gap just above would seem likely as all gaps have been filled lately, volume is leaking off. If the SPY could fill the gap, it's not a stretch that it could make a new high. Imagine that, from a new low on April 10th to a new high the same month, that's volatility.
SPY 5 min needs no commentary, note the struggle in momentum in the yellow box I mentioned as head winds.
SPY 15 min
SPY intraday 1 min losing intraday momentum
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