Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Early Market Update

As you probably know, I'm not a huge fan of a.m. trade with all of the games that go on, but this morning's SPY open is worth taking a look at.

 This is the 60 min bear flag talked about since last Friday, Sunday and yesterday. As you are aware, we see head fake moves like this very often, sucking in new shorts as the NYSE short interest is already at 2012 highs.

 There's an interesting little double bottom in place just below the bear flag, a break above the "W" pattern and a move in to the flag would likely make the bears very uncomfortable, that could prompt the start of a short squeeze.

 As you know, when we see high volume at a bullish looking candle at a low, it is often a reversal point (mini-capitulation).

 The 3 min trend is in a leading positive position here and specifically both bottoms of the "W" pattern over the last 2 days are at a leading positive 3C trend.

I've been using the 15 min charts to reduce noise (of which there has been a lot in the lower intraday timeframes), here the 15 min chart is at a significant leading positive divergence on this morning's open.

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