Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Market Update

It's looking more like that move in the SPY was indeed and intraday head fake move, the SPY would now need to move above the $134.75 area

Here are the other averages...
 For analysis purposes, the SPY is the best this morning as it did make a move below a.m. support, the DIA is the second best as it did not make a move below, but held at support which gives us two relative points to compare; the first in white is the initial support from a large hammer candlestick, the second in yellow was the test which formed a Tweezer bottom area of support (1 min chart)

 As for today, the DIA has been trading in line on the 1 min 3C chart all of the morning and made a relative positive divergence at the test of support around 11:15 and is currently in a small leading positive divergence (white box).

 On the 3 min chart, here's the range of the last 2 days (less actually), note the DIA is at a new leading positive high this morning at the test of intraday support.

 The 5 min chart shows a negative divergence to the left (red) and a decent relative positive divergence at the test at 11:15 and is starting to lead as the 3 min chart's strength starts to bleed over to the 5 min.

 The IWM 1 min-This isn't as useful as it didn't move toward lower support.

 The trend though in the 2 min chart has been leading positive during the entire consolidation area and put in a positive divergence at 11:15 today (smaller white arrow).

 The 5 min chart has much less noise as it should, it also shows the trend being leading positive with another leading positive move on the 11:15 dip.

 The Q's for intraday analysis aren't as useful as the SPY/DIA for the same reason as the IWM, but considering I have expected a final bounce to be led by Tech, the QQQ's relative strength today is important.

 QQQ 1 min 3C shows a very strong move today at 11:15 toward a leading positive divergence hitting new highs (leading divergences are always stronger than relative divergences).

 QQQ 2 min is seeing the 1 min strength bleed over  and this chart is leading positive at the 11:15 dip.

Even the 5 min today is starting to lead positive, so just as we saw yesterday, the migration from the faster timeframes to the longer timeframes is taking place. The Q's new leading high is encouraging.

I haven't felt right about the move lower on the news of the failure of the Greeks to form a coalition government, we have known as everyone has known that it wouldn't happen, New Democracy gave up after 1 day when they had 3, Syriza didn't give up, but passed on the baton as they know that if the ND couldn't form a government, the 3rd place PASOK wouldn't fare any better and Syriza knows that this means new elections which they are nearly guaranteed to win hands down with no need for a coalition government as they are tracking in the polls so well it looks like they'll get more seats than New Democracy and PASOK combined. So why would the market act so surprised? I doubt that it was.


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