Friday, May 18, 2012

Euro Stop Hunting- Fat Finger Trade?

I just can't resist, I don't normally slam other people's analysis, but this to me is just irresponsible.

From ZH...

EUR Soars On No News, As Santander UK Says 30% Of Visiting Customers Pulled Their Deposits Today


"Nothing could be more appropriate than topping a week of surreal newsflow than what just happened with the EURUSD, which soared by 80 pips on absolutely non news, "

 This is the chart they posted, what they didn't post was this...

So you know I'm not doing a "Jonny-come-lately", this is from one of the first posts at 9:46 a.m. today and also mentioned in several other posts yesterday. I posted this trendline, which they ignored and below the chart that looked exactly like this just without the breakout I said,

"Where the Euro need to break above to get upside momentum flowing..."


So is it surprising that momentum picked up as shorts covered as the trendline was broken?


Don't get me wrong, I'm bearish on the market, ZH are perma-bears and I agree with a lot of their longer term sentiment, but the market doesn't just go one way and we find some great opportunities in counter trend moves. The market should be represented as it is and as the proof of objective analysis suggests, even when it's hard to believe and even when it clashes (if only for a short time) with your perspective. 


As for other evidence, you know early in the week we saw something not looking right with the downtrend in the EUR and the uptrend in the $USD, it would be a lot more comfortable for me to find analysis that fits the direction of the trend, that's easier for people to accept, but that's not what I found. It's never easy to make calls that run counter to the price action, but there is a lot of opportunity in having a good idea of what the highest probabilities are and just look at what the Euro has done since we first noticed it!
Euro 5 min positive divergence/accumulation in a strong leading positive divergence-even at the breakout.

The 30 min chart... You can clearlt see the last distribution cycle, look at the strength of that leading positive!

It isn't just the Euro, we'd expect to see distribution in the dollar, here's the 5 min chart leading to a near 14 day low!

The 30 min chart leading negative this badly? Like I said earlier, the signs, signals, multiple indicators all suggest something a lot bigger than just a corrective move.

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