Monday, May 21, 2012

FB no longer supported and breaks the $38 handle

Peter Tchir sums up my feelings over FB the best (emphasis added by me)...

"I have no idea what to make of Facebook’s trading.  I think it is good they were able to raise so much money.  I am not sure whether the price is too high or not.  I think the big houses claiming this would lure retail back into the market are insane.  Retail is paying attention to the market, but aren’t going to be fooled by any single event.  I wouldn’t be shocked if FB winds up at 45 or at 30.  In the end, I don’t care that much.  Far too much emphasis is being placed on this company as a driver of the market, and it is just misplaced.  It is a business with a lot of potential, but it doesn’t strike me as an important indicator for today.  Companies like AAPL, GE, JPM, XOM, etc. remain far more important as they have business that are valued on today’s and tomorrow’s potential earnings, not on some hope (misplaced or not) of what the company will achieve 5 years from now.  With Nasdaq fixed by now, look for the underwriters to try and drive this stock higher again, but don’t expect it to last."


And so MS's support of FB ends quite abruptly, I suppose there's a ratio as to where it makes sense to support the stock bases on the profits from taking the company public and where that line in the sand is crossed.


I'd be interested to know if there was an insider selling lockout period, by the action in FB and MS's sudden halt in supporting it, it would seem not to be the case.


Timing definitely wasn't right for an IPO like this, beyond that serious questions linger surrounding the valuation as FB growth starts to decline as their market is pretty much saturated, it's now a matter of revenue streams and as many different programs GOOG put out, the only one keeping the company afloat are Adwords/Adsense and they've thrown a lot against the wall that just hasn't stuck, how much harder will it be for FB. Don't forget it wasn't too many years ago that MySpace was al the rage.



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