Thursday, May 3, 2012

Market Update

Well the charts are still given very small and sometimes ambiguous signals, here's what I see thus far...

When I explained my theory, I said the market would have to consolidate and accumulation would take place at levels near this white line. That's why it is so important to see how the market and 3C react in that area.

 DIA 1 min for intraday details is largely leading in position

 Looking closer it looks clear that there's been light accumulation at the lows and when price moves up a bit too high, they feed shares out (distribute) to move it lower. This isn't uncommon, but the signals are quite faint.

 The 5 min chart has less noise, more trend, you can see where recent higher levels saw negative divergences and a positive at lower levels.


 The 15 min which the DIA was the only one that looked more bearish yesterday, has improved today, its still in a bearish position, but there's improvement.

 The IWM and QQQ started out stronger after Tuesday/Wednesday's decline, they are seeing more negative divergences lately and deeper. One "possibility" is if Tech is to lead, then they'll want to accumulate tech as cheaply as possible, that's one scenario. This is the IWM 1 min.


 The 5 min shows the same, but there's some recent improvement.

 The 15 min IWM is showing lots of improvement.

 QQQ 1 min, again seeing more short term negative divergences, but it too was one of the better performers in at least filling the gap yesterday.

 The 3 min started off looking better than the SPY/DIA, as prices have risen, the negative divergences are bigger, it looks like this wants to pullback to the Wed. lows which is where we can gather the most useful information.

 QQQ 15 min overall is still not in a horrible place overall, the recent activity is more bullish than I would normally suspect. This is one of the reasons I believe it is probable that there's one more move higher.

 SPY 1 min showing negative divergences at the highs and positive at the lows, this is a much clearer signal then some others.

 On the 3 min where more of a trend shows up, we are seeing the same thing.

The 5 min is also showing the same, whereas the QQQ/IWM were stronger on the initial decline and DIA/SPY were much weaker, Now the SPY is seeing more relative underlying strength than the QQQ/IWM.

I'll keep digging, I need to look at AAPL especially.

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