Thursday, May 3, 2012

Still gathering information...

Remember, tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. we have non-Farm Payrolls, this is the biggest economic event of the week. The market could move huge on a miss or a better than expected print. It's not a simple 2+2=4 equation. A String of bad economic reports such as we have seen over the last few months with a miss in the NFP "could" have the opposite effect of what you'd normally think, this would be fostered by the QE-Crowd who sees any bad economic report as good for the market as they assume it will force Bernie to launch QE3, so even if we knew what the print was ahead of time, Wall Street will likely guide the initial reaction, that's just the way the game is played. I can almost guarantee if there's a miss and the market rallies, all you will here about on CNBC is how it is QE expectations, it is really about how Wall Street wants the market to move in the near term.

 I mentioned we could see a break below the range and before any major reversal we always do see a head fake move, so is this a head fake move or the real deal? Note the volume spike as stops were hit and shorts entered positions.

The initial 3C indication on the 1 min chart (this will either continue to build and effect longer term charts or it won't) has been relatively positive. We have a relative positive divergence and the start of a leading positive divergence. We want to see if these keep up and build, this will tell us whether the stops that were hit were accumulated or not. The general market trend has been a head fake move before a reversal and a volatility bounce on the break of important support, this is pretty important support for near term action.

I have more charts to look at and am still debating an AAPL position.

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