SPY Update

Seems to be a slow/steady build up in the SPY, which I will remind you was the only of the 4 major averages that did not have a positive 15 minute chart earlier today.

 SPY Daily chart, Friday's large volume "can" certainly be one of those high volume mini-capitulation days we see reversals from, although the market is becoming increasingly unpredictable-that has been the trend though. The daily close if it can maintain in this area could put in a bullish thrusting candlestick pattern which is a reversal pattern, much like its counterpart, the bearish dark cloud cover in the red box is a reversal candle.

 Looking at a 5 min chart with a 50 bar moving average (typical set up for day and swing traders) you can see the 50-bar has acted as resistance until recently as it flattened out, in yellow we see what could certainly (in the past I would assign a very high probability) be a shakeout move with the increased volume and new low. Now the 50 bar 5 min avg. is acting as support for the SPY, this is a recent and somewhat short term bullish change in character.

 The 1 min chart is largely in line with price-price /trend confirmation

 The 3 min chart shows an overall positive divergence (not marked), there is no negative divergence at the loss of momentum in the white box, I believe this is an FX arbitrage correlation, in any case, the SPY does look like it could consolidate here and when you see the FX charts you'll understand why.

 The 5 min chart has been improving all day, note how much bigger the leading positive divergence is today vs. Friday.

 Finally the SPY 15 min goes positive, this is a leading positive divergence  and a pretty good one for a day.

 I mentioned the SPY wan't showing much of a negative divergence as it has recently lost some momentum, I'm nearly certain it is because of the EUR/USD losing some momentum recently and it makes sense.

Looking at a longer chart of the same FX pair, the Euro is coming up on HEAVY resistance at the Friday/Sunday  gap. If the Euro is to move through this gap, a consolidation just below it makes perfect sense and the market doing the same makes perfect sense given its strong correlation with the Euro.

Overall today is a much stronger day than it should be considering the fundamentals. I would call today a tentative bullish success for near term trade and the possibility of that one last move higher I have theorized about.