Monday, May 7, 2012

Tech Industry Update

 The daily chart of XLK/Technology, the first yellow area is a confirmed head fake move below support, it's also where we found the very positive divergences that sent Tech in to rotation. The Red area is where shorts should have been initiated, many of my tech shorts were initiated or added to in this area. The question now is whether this second move below support is another head fake. AAPL's charts lean toward it being a head fake move.

 Intraday 1 min we can see the positive divergence of Friday afternoon.

 A closer view of the 1 min today shows what may be a range forming as Tech sees 1 min negative divergences at the upper end of the range, I suspect the white trendline may be an area in which a range may be formed, we'll want to watch for the 1 min chart to go positive on moves to the lower end of that range if in fact this is a range as it appears to be from early indications.

 The 5 min chart is a bit confusing, but shows the positive divergence of the 24th on the head fake move below support and Tech blasting off the next day. We also see the same distribution in to the highs like we saw on AAPL's initial move higher. 3C is still in a leading positive position. If 3C were to confirm these lower prices, the indicator would be at least where the blue arrow is and likely lower.

The white trendline is my guesstimate of where the average accumulated position would be based on where the positive divergence was found, so as you can see, even with a positive divergence starting at higher levels and continuing in to lower price levels, the accumulation of tech for this bounce would still have been a profitable short term trade.

The 15 min chart looks pretty good in Tech as well, at the green arrow 3C was in line with price, the white arrow/box was the accumulation of the head fake move on the 24th. Then distribution in to the move higher (perhaps the NFP was known in advance or maybe the market just wanted to keep up the volatile chop "Meat Grinder" that is causing traders all kinds of problems as no move sticks for more than a few days.). Currently Tech is in a leading positive position as well, if 3C were to confirm the downside move the indicator would be at or below the blue arrow.

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