Monday, June 4, 2012

FB Update

On 5/31 I entered some June $27 calls, I really don't know why I went with June, I'd much prefer July, but I still like FB here and it looks like something is still brewing. I may add a small July call position and when/if the June calls are in the money, roll them over to July. If I had no FB position right now (keeping in mind any long other than UNG in my view is to be considered speculative), I'd be looking at adding one right now and still may add a few July Calls, I'll let you know if I do, before I do.

Here's the FB charts.

 FB forming a bearish consolidation/continuation pattern-"A descending triangle", which is in the right place so traders will be looking at this as an opportunity to short FB before the next leg down which is implied by the price pattern, the only problem is these price patterns are more often than not, traps. They may not be obvious at first, but when you look back after several days or a week or so, you see these are traps more often than not. If there weren't strong 3C signals that have already worked very well in FB, I probably would have no interest in FB as it is a new issue, but that's not the case.

 The bearish consolidation triangle, note volume picked up as traders likely placed short limit orders on a break of support.

 The 1 min FB chart shows deep negative divergences o the 25th and 29th (approx.) and the positive on the 31st, which is when I entered the June calls, which were up 36% in 30 mins by the close, I didn't get in as early as I would have liked to, but that's when I noticed it. Since then the triangle has continued to mature and the divergence has as well.

 A closer view of the 1 min chart, what is interesting is the negative divergence on the 31st is VERY small, much smaller than previous negative divergences that have taken FB lower. Also 3C never made a new low and as we reach the area in price where I would have preferred to enter, the positive divergence is even stronger.

 The 2 min also shows negative divergences that were quite large and took FB lower, compared to the negative on the 31st, they are much larger, the 31st negative is barely noticeable, Of course the stronger positive since Friday is also attractive.

 The 3 min chart needs to commentary.

 Nor does the 5 min

The 30 min doesn't show the previous negative divergences, they weren't strong enough to make it to the 30 min chart, instead 3C shows confirmation of the downtrend, however the positive divergence does show up clearly, really starting on the 31st.

I do like FB here for a quick long trade, whether leveraged or not. I'll have to look at how much risk I have in the June Calls and see if there's room to start a July position which is what I should have done from the start.

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