Friday, June 8, 2012

FB Update

I'm still really liking FB for a sentiment twist.short squeeze. This has to be one of the most hated stocks out there which makes it perfect for a move up. It also has minimum data which makes most garden variety indicators pretty worthless.

 The 50 bar 30 min m.a. seems to be an important average where I can see at least a few head fake moves, the average is turning and price is holding above it.

 This is another highly prized technical short set up, when I first started with Technical Analysis these descending triangles after a downtrend were so reliable, once the internet took hold, cheap online brokers popped up and people started managing their own accounts. When's the last time you heard someone say, "My stock broker"? With that T.A. took off, as I've mentioned before, I think it went from a Voodoo "Oh, so those lines tell you when to buy huh?" to mainstream out of pure laziness. There have been studies done showing these price patterns now have a 50/50 probability of working, the reason? Wall Street figured out what main street was watching and used it against them. To bolster my "Lazy" argument, traders STILL (over 12 years later) use the same nearly 100 year old set ups.

 My award winning (that's true) Trend Channel had the FB stop at just under $26 a couple of days ago, it has held consolidations, even a inverse H&S pattern and it keeps locking in gain, now at $26.50, although FB is yet to make a huge move, I do think it's coming.

 The 1 min chart has been mostly in line today, it's starting to get positive

 The 2 min chart is seeing that strength as it should.

 Interestingly the 30 min above and 60 min below are adding to the leading positive divergence every day, this is today's change.


 Just for giggles I looked at MoneyStream 60 min, which is constructed totally different than 3C and it too is leading positive

For those using my X-Over screen to avoid false moving average crossovers, you can see the short/sell signal in red, there was a bullish crossover on 6/1, note the screen did not confirm it, saving you money if you use crossover systems. However currently there' a confirmed long signal.

All in all, I think FB is going to surprise a lot of people.

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