Friday, June 8, 2012

Nice Close

However more than that, it accomplished something is the strategic thinking. I already showed you some short covering at intraday resistance as price moved above and volume picked up-those are likely new shorts seeing the market action yesterday as a failed test of resistance. If I was a perma bear, I'd be a little nervous with today's close.

 SPY trend confirmation and there were some last hour negative divergences out to the 3 min chart, nothing trend changing, but most likely some profit taking by momentum/day traders or those who typically de-leverage in to a weekend, it wasn't enough to turn price though.

 Around the last hour it looks like some small hedges were put on in Treasuries, the flight to safety trade as you can see 1 min accumulation and price responding thereafter, these positions in Treasuries would be used to hedge long exposure in to an uncertain weekend rather than closing the long position.
 The SPX daily chart had a VERY different tone to it yesterday, thus the reason I believe the invisible hand of Wall Street helped push the market lower during the last hour. As of yesterday the Candlestick pattern was a classic shooting star reversal and right near resistance: 1) it appeared the test failed 2) this is one of the first short set ups I learned when I first started using TA, you wait for a break of support, then a bounce back up to it that doesn't break through resistance and you short it there with a stop just above resistance. Combined with the candlestick pattern it would have been a classic set up for bears. Today however the confirmation candle that should have been a lower low was not there, instead a higher close, so I'm sure some shorts are nervous about this close.
3C was in line with ES all day and ES has a short covering look to it, not strong short covering as there were some pullbacks, but a consistent uptrend. Es also closed above yesterday's 4 p.m. close at $1323 today vs $1316, that's quite a come back from the overnight lows of $1298.75. Some bears may develop a slight bald spot from a lot of head scratching over the weekend, but as I say, Wall Street never makes anything easy, just compare today to yesterday.

I'll have some more charts later or over the weekend, I want to cover China specifically.

Until then, enjoy your weekend

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