UNG

I just got a head's up on UNG as I have been so busy looking at other things, I didn't look there today on the EIA Natural Gas report that comes out every Thursday morning. Pretty much everyone here knows there's only 2 stocks or Industry groups that I like for longer term long positions and among those two, UNG/Natural Gas is my favorite.

For quite some time we have been following the changes in character in UNG, it's been tough but the base I have suspected was forming seems to have formed.  I picked up some UNG for the equities model portfolio and it's a position I don't even monitor, it's a longer term play so I'm not too concerned with the day to day stuff.

We saw a change in character in UNG late last year.early this year and have been following it since. I had no idea what was causing this...

A large positive divergence in to falling and or range bound prices.

Or this...

 A clear change in character both in price trend and volume.

Or this...

The Trend Channel holding the downtrend without a single stop out until recently.

Then somethings started popping up, the first was Bernie testifying before Congress and a Congressman asking him a clearly rigged question about the beneficial virtues of Natural Gas. The question was way out of left field as the F_E_D has nothing to do with energy policy, however the testimony was being watched by traders the world over and what better way to give Nat. Gas a prop than during Bernie's testimony. Not too long after that some legislation that would limit the pollution from any new power plants built in the US left only two options, nuclear which is the second area I like and Natural Gas.

Well take a look at Nat Gas today on this EIA inventory report

Released On 6/14/2012 10:30:00 AM For wk6/8, 2012 Prior Actual Weekly Change 62 bcf 67 bcf

Highlights Natural gas in storage rose 67 billion cubic feet in the June 8 week to 2,944 bcf. An injection of 80 bcf was expected.  Today a 13.25% gain on huge volume. Now you take a look at the 3C charts below starting with the longer term (more important-showing the true extent of institutional activity) to the shorter term and you tell me if you think there was just MAYBE some inside trading going on in advance of this morning's report?  The 30 min chart, negative at the May top and then a large relative and leading positive divergence to new highs.  The 15 min chart with a leading positive divergence that grew stronger right in to yesterday. The 1 min chart going very positive yesterday (many times this is the market maker/specialist stocking up on shares as they have seen the larger orders go through already and may have filled the orders themselves).