Friday, July 13, 2012

Correlation between the Euro and Market Still High

We haven't seen much of anything in the market for hour because the Euro hasn't done much of anything in hours, it is setting up a very visible bull pennant, so that price pattern being gamed is highly likely. I don't want to short the market (beyond a day trade) but rather use any price weakness to likely buy.

It seems many traders are shorting the SPX at $1350, not surprising, especially given the whole number.

 SPY vs the Euro, both lateral, but the SPX/SPY is a bit elevated from support of the FX correlation.

 Euro 1 min trend with a leading negative divergence today, as mentioned, this can cause a consolidation rather than a pullback.

 The 3 min chart is in line

 5 min is overall very positive, this is why I wouldn't want to be short the market against this chart, probabilities are just not on your side.

 SPY 1 min negative, but not really all that bad.

 While the 2 min negative divergence "Can" cause a consolidation, it's more likely to cause a pullback.

 The 5 min SPY trend and leading positive vs the intraday negative, I don't want to short the market against the probabilities implied on this chart.

Here's the SPX 1350 level where many traders are saying they shorted today. As I showed you earlier, with the recent trend and this move today, this is an old school short set up, the problem is old school is exactly what is manipulated every day.

For now just being patient...

No comments: