Tuesday, July 24, 2012

FB Update

As you may remember I started some FB Aug $27 and hoped to add to that position a I have been waiting for a pullback since we first entered FB near the bottom and saw some very nice profits. The current position is up about 21% right now and I'd love to add to it, but on the short term charts I just can't find the pullback or the short term signals giving me reason to add to the position. I do like the way the longer term 60 min chart is developing, this is the chart that got us in the trade long at the bottom, so I will hold the open position for now, but I just don't see the edge in adding here yet.

 Here's the FB head fake move we expected in the yellow box on a bullish ascending triangle right on long term support, the break below support wasn't surprising and now we have a bear's dream, a bear flag which according to technical Analysis should break to the downside for the next leg down, this would be the perfect bear trap for a counter trend move higher, such as what we have seen in BIDU today, although the patterns are different, the set up is the same.

 The 15 min BIDU and faster timeframes are just not giving me a pullback as deep as I'd like to see or the kind of signals I'd like to see to have an edge to add to the trade right now, it still remains just a bit smaller than a speculative position.

 The 30 min shows the pullback/negative divergence I had been waiting for and after that in a lateral area 3C actually went positive before the pullback, I'm still wondering what's going on with that, what the real purpose of this pullback is , "Is it in fact to set up a bear trap?".


In any case, to the far left was the original long signal on the 60 min chart which was much bigger back then, the negative divergence, but notice it's not a VERY strong negative divergence as well as that area of 3C strength before the pullback, currently the 60 min chart has a leading positive position which I like, but that' more strategic and adding to the position is more tactical and found on the shorter term charts, that's what I'm still missing. I'll stick with the position I have now, speculative unless/until something develops that opens up a nice edge.

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