Tuesday, July 24, 2012

UVXY Follow Up

Here's the reason for closing out the UVXY call position I opened late yesterday, remember this market is like a meat grinder with the intraday volatility, I don't mind sitting that out in a non-leveraged position, but with leverage I'd rather just move out of the position especially with a profit. Also this will show you the most likely longer term trend for VXX and UVXY, it's what we expect for our market trend expectations.

 With a 32% profit in half a day, I am fine with closing the position.

 Nearly the exact opposite of XIV, the 1 min chart of UVXY started to lead negative intraday, with XIV confirming with a leading positive as well as the market averages I will update next, it made some sense to go ahead and close this position here.

 The UVXY 2 min chart is in a relative negative divergence, this to me looks more like a correction of some type is likely, remember last week before the pullback move started I reminded you there' so much volatility in the market that there will be a lot of noise and short counter trend moves to keep everyone guessing and try to hit as many orders and stops as possible, if you have a longer term play based on the trend, just keep your eye on the longer term charts.

 The 3 min trend shows a large positive divergence, UVXY should give up quite a bit of upside from this trend, however that doesn't mean it's all one way or straight up.

 The 5 min chart is also at a relative negative divergence, a relative divergence like this is the weakest divergence there is so it doesn't look like there's any heavy underlying selling going on in UVXY, but more short term stuff for a short term correction.

 Now we are starting to get in to the timeframes that are showing us the trend of UVXY when the noise is removed and also as UVXY trades inverse to the market, the market trend as well, which we already expected to be down for a pullback, but an intense pullback. The 15 min chart has a large base capable of supporting quite a bit of upside in UVXY and right now we are in a longer term trend leading positive position.

 Look at these 30 min above and 60 min below, 3c charts on UVXY go, the last time I remember these timeframes lading positive like this we were entering FB at the bottom.


No comments: