Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Follow Up


 As mentioned in yesterday's Risk Asset Update, the Euro's failure to confirm and relative $USD strength vs the move in the market is the major concern in this move (IWM daily vs Euro).

 Although the Euro is much weaker than we'd expect to see for a move like this in the market, it is seeing a little intraday strength. (IWM 1 min vs Euro)

Also lets not forget where this move originated, from a clear bullish consolidation triangle and an obvious one at that as that is where the IWM short squeeze started on a breakout from the triangle, this also casts some suspicions on "THIS" move.



 The DIA isn't seeing the same divergence on the 1 min chart that some of the other averages are seeing, it is a relative negative as 3C is not making higher highs with price.

 At the next timeframe the 2 min, there's not much migration here.

 The IWM 1 min is where we see some of the sharpest moves in the 1 min intraday charts.

 Just for perspective, this is the same chart zoomed out to cover the last day and a half.

 Thus far the migration to the 2 min chart is not as sharp. I believe the intraday move in the Euro above is lending some near term support, even though on a longer timeframe, perhaps as of the close today or the open Thursday, I feel this will be a problem.

 The Q's 1 min is similar to the DIA

 there's some migration of the divergence to the 3 min chart, although not horrible.

 The SPY is the other average (the IWM being the first) that is showing deterioration in the 1 min

However it's rather new and has not seen much migration to the 2 min chart as of yet.

There's the chance that the Euro improves and the market gets some more support. Thursday's accumulation event clearly seems like someone knew something in advance, the question is how far does this go. I would NOT be chasing this move, however I do plan on keeping already established longs open.

As of now the TNA long is up 26%, ERX is up 16.5%, FAS is up nearly 7% and 5 of the 6 core shorts are all in the green up to 21.5% with the only core short at a loss being XOM at 0.28%.

This looks like it will be a fast moving market as we approach the close.

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