Tuesday, July 3, 2012

BPZ Update

BPZ was a long idea from June 18th.,  subsequent updates on June 22 and #2

 Here's the original trade idea the day after what looked like mini-capitulation. With the downtrend and the bearish continuation triangle, in retrospect, I should have waited for the bear trap to set up and buy in to that weakness.

Since we didn't have an uptrend to work with until the June 22nd update, we used the hourly Trend Channel which has held the entire move thus far, the trade is up about 14% right now.

The current charts...
 BPX is starting to look like it has the potential to be a longer term trending trade as this is one of the few stocks out there with a positive divergence on a daily chart, or the primary trend.

 The 4 hour chart from distribution to a leading positive divergence (accumulation).

 The 60 min leading positive would be more than impressive, but with the 4 hour and daily, BPX looks to be something special in this market.

 The 30 min chart offers more detail as it should, it is also leading positive.

 As for a pullback, the 3 min went from a relative negative divergence to a slight leading negative today.

 The negative divergence stretches out to the 15 min chart, which is basically in line with the market averages. I have mentioned many times how the market is the primary driving force behind any given stock on any given day, but over the last several months we have seen an extraordinary amount of correlation, stock pickers can still do their thing, but the amount of market correlation makes stock picking somewhat futile at the moment, it's only stock like this that stand out on a daily chart that are really standing out from the strong correlation in the market.

 I would look for a pullback somewhere around the $2.50-$2.55 level, which means our 60 min stop will have to be adjusted to a wider daily stop, which would have been necessary any way for a longer term trending trade.


Here the 60 min x-over chart to avoid false crossovers gave a recent signal and remains in line as a long trade. We may have to move this out to a daily chart as well soon.

I would definitely keep this one on your radar for a pullback.


No comments: