Monday, July 2, 2012

GLD Update

Continued from today's earlier update.... GLD keeps moving as I suspected it might, we may very well have a decent entry for a short/put position soon. If you do trade GLD, you must be nimble, we've had 3 or 4 successful put trades in a row, but all were very short from 1- 3 days. There may very well be a longer term change in trend toward a more bullish outlook developing, but we seem to still be in the very beginning stages of that and as such, the 60 min chart's negative position dictates that GLD should be traded short term from the short side.

 Earlier I said the short looked too obvious and I was looking for GLD to break out above Friday's highs with a negative divergence continuing to develop as GLD moved higher. Since then we have this triangle that has developed, it has no inherent bias as a symmetrical triangle other than the preceding trend and on this timeframe, the closest thing to that would make this an upside consolidation/continuation triangle. Traders already seem to have bought a break out above the triangle so this may very well get price where I expected and hoped to see it earlier today.

 The 1 min chart was positive on the open, but since then has only been in line, this bodes well for the current price pattern as a potential head fake move.

 The 2 min chart last saw a positive divergence last Thursday and has only been in line since.

 The 3 min chart went negative at Friday's highs and is now in a leading negative position.

And the 15 min chart also went negative on Friday at the highs and remains in a leading negative position. We just need to see price move to a head fake breakout above Friday's highs and then see the 1 and 2 min charts go negative with the 3-15 min charts continue deteriorating and we should have a low risk, high probability entry, just be patient.




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