GLD Update

Many of you know my least favorite assets to analyze are #1 SLV because of the manipulation and more recently, GLD because of the change in trend from a Primary uptrend to an intermediate downtrend with another longer term Primary trend (up) that seems to be developing-DEVEOPING-not there yet.

So GLD is where I'd think to look on anything F_E_D related, but it's just not giving consistent signals, part of that is because of what I believe is a transition in the long term trend, but even the shorter term charts are all over the place. We had some good trades in GLD, trading form the short side, but now I don't see enough confirmed evidence to even support that right now.

I did want to show you 1 chart that is a bit interesting today as we found out with USO yesterday, 1 chart can make a difference (I'm speaking of USO's late day leading positive divergence that sent USO higher today).

 GLD's 2 min chart-leading positive. There's not very good confirmation on either side of this timeframe, but the move itself is worth pointing out. If I was a guru I'd tell you what this means (whether I knew or not), I'm not a guru, I'd rather be a better risk manager and say, "If there's not good confirmation (a strong edge), it's probably best to wait it out until there is, even if I suspect I know which way this is going. That's the difference between gambling and trading.

 Recently I have grown a little more cautious of recent GLD put positions which have done well, the reason for the caution is the improving 15 min. chart, which is also in a recent leading positive position over the last day.

 The 30 min was confirmation of trading GLD from the short side, but now it has a relative positive divergence coming from the 15 min chart-so I'm not so hot on trading GLD from the short side as there are improvements (longer term I believe the primary trend is starting to improve and this may be part of that improvement).

 The 60 min chart was also confirmation to trade GLD from the short side, but it too is improving.

A closer view of the 60 min chart shows again, strong recent improvement the last day or so.

So while I don't see the typical edge in the short term charts in which I'd normally use as confirmation for a trade, I do see improvement and suspect that this whole recent ordeal is probably VERY much about the minutes and perhaps even some leaked information.