Wednesday, July 11, 2012

With 30 minutes left until the minutes

I decided to take a quick look at the risk asset layout, there wasn't much out of place except a few of the assets we monitor had some strong volatility in them, like Yields. HY Credit also remains in a fairly bullish place, it hasn't moves much, but hasn't given up much ground either.

I just want to remind everyone, there's almost always a Knee-Jerk reaction to F_E_D policy issues, you can't always count on the first reaction, so expect volatility.

From the charts and many having very strong signals on one timeframe, but laking good confirmation on nearby timeframes, I would interpret that as a warning to be prepared for volatility as it would seem to me different factions are preparing to trade different trends in nearby volatility.

If I was running my own hedge fund right now, my primary course of action would be no action at all. You don't bet on volatility, you wait for high probability trades, as tempting as it is. Thus the Call positions are speculative and can be closed quickly if need be, but also are spread out to take advantage of any trends that may emerge from the minutes.

Just be prepared for volatility.




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