Thursday, July 26, 2012

IOC Follow Up

IOC made a nice move up today, this is one I added to the core short equities model portfolio, its at a 9% position loss and about a -1.2% portfolio loss. I just looked real quick at YahooFinance and see it has been everywhere all over CNBC, I'm not going to pretend I know much more than that although I did see some other various headlines, but when stuff is all over CNBC I get a little skeptical.

IOC is cleanly above resistance and this makes for a technical breakout buy, it also makes for a bull trap so we'll turn to the charts.

 The 1 min chart strangely didn't confirm the gap up, it's a big gap and this is a fast chart, I'd think it would have confirmed.

 The 2 min didn't confirm either.

 The 5 min is at a relative negative divergence.

 The 15 min is at a leading negative divergence

 The 15 min longer trend shows that leading negative divergence in greater detail.

 The 30 min is relative negative

 The 60 min is leading negative

 And this is where it gets important to me for a longer term core position, the 4 hour trend is horrible and the daily below doesn't look much different.


While I'd want to see more deterioration before adding (which I probably won't just because of the current position size) or initiating a new position, I will stick with the short for the time being unless I see the charts change for the better. The longer charts are the most important and have the most trend information, the position is only at -1.2% portfolio loss so I think I can wait this out and see what comes of it.

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