SLV-WOW

Any one who knows me knows if there's one asset class I hate to analyze, it's SLV because it gets so manipulated.

I just looked at it for a member and saw something interesting, remember how I mentioned GLD looks like it is setting up a longer term bullish trend, SLV seems to have joined it.

Follow me here, first we seem to be just looking at a head fake move the last 2 days.

 Here we have the typical bear flag, last night I got a sentiment update and the blogs and Twitter stream are strewn with the bodies of bears who went short on BEARISH PRICE PATTERNS THAT ENDED UP BEING BEAR TRAPS. How many times in the last month have I said, "This looks like a bear trap"? In any case, here's a bear flag, a consolidation/continuation pattern which comes after a downtrend in price and is expected to follow the path of the red arrows (the true technical name for this pattern is a "bear pennant"). Instead there was a head fake move to the upside, but guess what, even that was a head fake and the longs got taken out too. Here's the important part, Technical analysis teaches that if a important price pattern fails, you should reverse your trade in the opposite direction. That means the shorts that entered during the formation of the bear pennant not only got stopped out on the move up, but then went long and were stopped out on that trade too, this is what I call a "Crazy Ivan Shakeout" or at least a version of it. The next important part is after all of this happened, SLV seems to have formed a base in white.

 Here's a closer look at what "appears" to be a base in SLV, although unlike GLD (to a degree), this base seems more along the lines of a sub-intermediate uptrend or maybe an intermediate trend, gold looks more like it may be forming a Primary uptrend or bull market. In any case, here in yellow, every time my trend line was violated price fell. I would expect that if this were an actual base, we'd see a strong shakeout move below the range before a move up.

 Now for what seems like short term trade along the lines of prices above the trendline on the chart above, we have a 1 min negative divergence like many others in the recent past as price is above the resistance trendline of what appears to be a base area, but this negative divergence is worse than former ones. Perhaps SLV is going to make a move down that is along the lines of the pullback trend/move down we expect in the market, perhaps even (as I suspect that move may be very sharp in the market), it may even make the head fake move I mentioned above below the range before an upside reversal. If it were to do that, it would put SLV in the same trend category expectations we have for the market, after the pullback, a return to the sub-intermediate trend higher that could be VERY sharp and lead to a short squeeze. This is getting very interesting.


 The 2 min chart looks like SLV is making a small head fake move above the resistance trendline and seeing a negative divergence here.

 The same on the 3 min chart, but again, the divergence now is bigger than past ones.

 The 5 min chart is our first real glimpse of what appears to be accumulation and then distribution when prices get too high, they move lower and are accumulated again, but again we have a stronger than usual negative divergence now.

 The 15 min chart goes on to show us what looks like SLV being worked by professionals to accumulate at a specific price for a large institutional investor or many of them.

 The 15 min chart close up shows the larger than normal positive divergence at the extreme lows of SLV and a negative divergence above the upper trendline defined in the second chart of this post.

 Just look at SLV since the pennant formation of the bear flag/pennant and the overall trend, that seems to tell us something bigger is going on and it falls in line to some degree with the sub-intermediate uptrend expected to follow in the market after the pullback move is over. Note even the head fake move out of the pennant saw a negative divergence and no strong distribution in the pennant as technical traders assumed there would be. 60 min.

 The trend of the 4 hour chart.

And the overall trend of the daily from uptrend confirmation to a negative divergence to downtrend confirmation to a recent positive divergence on a daily chart that is also leading, which is big for a daily chart.

INTERESTING!!!!