Thursday, July 19, 2012

Some other closing indications

Op Ex week has typically been a pin pretty close to the week's range, we haven't seen too many big surprises on op. ex. Friday (tomorrow).

The underlying trade is what is getting a little, I'll call it, "Scary", although it doesn't present any real problems, it just hints at more extreme conditions than we might normally expect. From looking t the SPY alone, I don't get the feeling of an extreme element in a pullback, but some of the other averages, even those that have been doing well outwardly such as the Q's today, are starting to show signs of the stress that causes the more extreme movements. Often it is the extreme movements that offer us some of the best opportunities. I don't want to call an extreme movement, but point in fact, it did make new highs in to negative divergences and lost over 4% today, making it look like the head fake I suspected it might be back on Monday. These extreme movements are one way we can let the trade come to us o they're not all bad as the word, "extreme" may imply, but they do become more unpredictable.

Here are the other averages at the close.

 DIA 1 min is almost perfectly in line today

 The 3 min shows worsening underlying trade

 The 5 min is actually quite bad.

 This 15 min chart is what I'm talking about when mentioning the pullback could b more extreme as the 15 min charts are dragged lower.

 The IWM 1 min is nearly perfectly in line with price today.

 The 3 min is divergent, not just what's in the red box.

 The 5 min is becoming extreme on its own.

 And the 15 min has been pretty ugly for some time now.

 Today is the first day the QQQ 1 min chart has really broken loose from confirmation to go negative.

 The 2 min chart is right there with it showing migration.

 The 5 min chart has been showing problems for a longer duration.

Now the 15 min chart has seen a pretty dramatic 1 day shift to a leading negative position.

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