Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Additional SPY Charts

Not considering the trend of 3C, just the intraday readings, it looks like the 5 min chart gave the SPY some breathing room, but with the 1 min chart just posted (last post) starting to really deteriorate, that (so long as it keeps up) should migrate through the timeframes and at the 5 min timeframe, should cause some damage.

We'll look at both the more important trend and the intraday signals.

 Since you already saw the 1 min, here's the 2 min trend, leading negative for the SPY and VERY CLEARLY.

 Intraday 2 min shows the negative divergence at all 3 of yesterday's reaction highs and the pullbacks from those highs on the intraday negative divergences. As you can see, the 2 min chart doesn't look quite as bad as the 1 min chart did in the last post yet, but remember, divergences start on the shorter timeframe charts and migrate to the longer timeframes. Still, the 2 min is in leading negative position even on an intraday basis.

 The 3 min chart on an intraday basis also shows all of yesterday in a leading negative divergence, no confirmation in 3C which would mean a higher high than the Aug3rd reading. This morning we see an intraday negative divergence on the open just like the 1 and 2 min charts, it is still pointing up, but as I mentioned, we have to wait for migration of the 1 min chart through the timeframes.

 5 min trend is actually quite negative when comparing where 3C was on June 25th compared to now. Also note the leading negative divergence of the last 2 days and today.

Here's what I meant at the top of the post about the 5 min giving the SPY a little breathing room, we have a higher high (see white trendline) although this is very weak compared to the overall trend of a leading negative divergence, it is however the intraday trade signal. So we'll see if we get migration from the short term charts to the longer term charts. The SPY/SPX is above the bull flag, technical traders like that for buying confirmation, when they buy, they allow Wall Street to sell in to strength or short, that's why I mentioned how almost all of the averages and momentum stocks were above some important resistance level yesterday, one of the last things we see before about 80% of reversals is a head fake move such as this appears to be as I explained in the last posts from yesterday-both AAPL and the SPY.

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