Tuesday, August 7, 2012

MCP Follow Up

MCP is VERY interesting, you rarely see a stock put in a leading positive 15 min divergence like MCP did in one day, yet on intraday charts we have signals for a pullback. I was wrestling with what type of position to open in MCP, options or equity and decided on equity as it would give me more breathing room to see what MCP is really up to, a simple gap fill or a larger base? If MCP is going to make a larger base, then a pullback makes perfect sense, but there's something very interesting about how quickly the divergences developed there. I'm going to try to give MCP as much room as possible without violating risk management rules out of curiosity, some of you may have had nice profits on options positions and maybe even took them this morning on the 3% move, I feel I have more room to be patient because I don't have some of the burdens of options hanging around, that's why I chose an equity long instead.

 The 15 min leading positive divergence that developed so quickly, it is not seeing any migration of weakness from shorter term charts, although I think it would take a little longer before we saw anything like that, I will be watching for that today.

 The 5 min chart is leading positive as well, it has seen a little loss of momentum bleeding through from the shorter term charts, I'll be watching this as well.

 Starting at the fastest 1 min intraday, yesterday we saw some intraday negative divergences and MCP responded to them as you can see, both negative and positive, we had a relative negative divergence on the 35 opening move, so it's not surprising to see a pullback, however this isn't a horrible divergence.

 The 2 min chart has less noise and shows what looks like a pullback from today's early highs with a negative divergence, still in the intraday timeframe though.

 And the 3 min chart shows the same.

 So this 5 min chart will be important in judging how strong those intraday divergences are.

For a very short term stop, the 60 min trend channel is at $11.60, it at least keeps you at a stop that is still profitable. I may give it a little more room depending on how the 5/15 min charts develop.

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