Thursday, August 2, 2012

End of day Risk Assets

There were no big surprises in the risk asset layout, credit stayed down, commodities didn't participate in the afternoon move, the Euro bottomed before the market this a.m. and probably had something to do with the Goldman Euro long call on the same day that the ECB disappointed and the normal expectation would be for the Euro to lose ground because of it (along with the market), so it seems like a very transparent attempt by Goldman to unload some Euro longs in to some demand by putting out their "Free" buy signal. The last 3 they put out were as wrong as you could get, a buy at the market top, a sell at the market low; when a company that trades against their own clients starts offering free trading advice, use it for what its worth.

Just think about it, the market/Euro moves up based on Draghi saying he'll do anything to save the Euro before a big ECB meeting and then he does nothing at the meeting and GS expects the Euro to go up? They're smarter than that, but they're hoping that you aren't.

I find it a little interesting that ES isn't looking so good (at least not 3C) as soon as the equity market closes.

It actually looks even worse since I uploaded the capture.

We finally have a clean set of signals that make sense and have good confirmation, it's just a patience game from here. I'll be looking to see what short term and maybe even hedge longs that I want to unload in to whatever price strength remains and what I want to short or buy (like UVXY/VXX) as the short term signals turn which can happen in a blink of an eye, I've had them change while I was writing a post, so I'll be on the lookout for that, but I want to know what my plan is in advance as mentioned as it can turn that fast and has in the past when Goldman has put out these "Free Advice" calls.

I'll update you if anything interesting develops in ES


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