Market Update

 ES intraday is showing a relative positive divergence, this isn't very strong, but speaks to the volatility we can expect, at least I believe until the AAPL story is over. Friday I said that the charts and all of the indicators we use were all lined up for that "Ah-Ha!" moment that we have seen 3 or 4 times this year at major reversals, it's why I said I was fine with having wrapped up positioning Friday even though the AAPL story looked like we'd see early strength Monday. I still think we are right there at the beginning of the end, but it's still early, there's still going to be a lot of market volatility and I think AAPL is going to be a key stock to watch as to timing of the break.

 The IWM/Russell 2000 should lead a risk on move, the fact that it looks horrible just goes to speak to that "Ah-Ha!" moment, the 5 min chart is leading negative, the IWM is on the ropes here, but it is 1 of 4 major averages.

 The QQQ (I'll call this the top), I believe will still see volatility inside this range (I'm surprised it didn't make a stronger head fake move higher above the range) until AAPL wraps up.

 AAPL with a slight head fake move up out of the triangle, but it looks like AAPL is just building a bigger triangle, that's fine, it will just make the move more effective and send the market down faster and harder. Re-draw your trendlines and watch for the head fake move higher, when it comes you'll know, it won't be subtle. The second option is they just take it lower without the head fake as the price pattern alone is bullish and will pull in longs, but a move up is much more effective as many longs won't enter without price confirmation.

 The SPY range-same story as the QQQ except here a break in Financials will be more effective.

 The SPY 1 min negative on the gap fill as we saw earlier and has been negative and confirming the move down, now we have a slight relative positive divergence, again this isn't strong and is not institutional accumulation, but it is volatility producing on an intraday basis and remember we are still VERY early in the day.

 SPY 2 min trend is VERY negative at Friday's highs as well as this morning and now leading negative at a new low for this chart.

 The SPY 60 min chart is the most powerful chart on this update and shows the trend of institutional activity better than any, as you can see it is leading negative so the story is already written, the players just need to act it out.

 DIA range-

 DIA leading negative 2 min chart

Leading negative 60 mi chart.