Over the Weekend and in to the Open

Since the opening of S&P E Mini Futures last night (EDT), we have seen them drop a bit and swing back up a bit in a "U" shape to bring us nearly flat at Friday's close for the market.

Japanese preliminary Q2 GDP came in below consensus and there was some initial opening disappointment that the Chinese RRR cut many had hoped for last week, may be postponed.  Meanwhile Greek GDP showed that the contraction in GDP there was at a slower pace (only 6.2% vs consensus of 7% -sarc.), even as the consensus builds that Greece will ultimately be sacrificed on the EU's alter as domestic politics in the power nations of the north start to become of greater concern, but who didn't see this coming; a slow moving train-wreck; but for now the Greek news took the market from risk off to slight risk on overnight. Thus far sovereign 10-year yields in the only two countries that count right now, Spain and Italy, are holding below the psych levels of 7% and 6% respectively.

Thus far volume has been thin, there is no major tier 1 US economic data so it is likely to stay thinner than usual, which leads to higher volatility.

Friday I posted that I thought AAPL (and thus the market) were about to see an intraday move higher based on 2 things, first was the triangle in AAPL, it's way too obvious not to run, followed by 3C confirmation of intraday accumulation to do exactly that and 30 minutes after I posted I thought we'd see this run, it started.


Here's the run on a 15 min chart

Late Friday I posted my skepticism that the move was over for one simple reason, we predicted the AAPL move and it happened on no news, it happened because of the price pattern that was there, it's a money maker for Wall Street and a primer for a downside reversal, but to be effective (and this is the only reason the run came), it needed to break above the triangle to lure in longs, otherwise it would be totally useless and as of the close on Friday, it had not done that, it will do that this morning so we will be watching carefully for signs of a reversal.

This is exactly the kind of move that I want to short in to, as soon as the signals are there, I'll let you know and you'll likely have a beautiful AAPL/market short entry.

I'll update the opening indications as soon as we have them, watch for lots of volatility today, the open doesn't mean much with regard to the close, but may be helpful in opening or adding to positions as we let the trade come to us.