Friday, August 24, 2012

Market Update

It looks like that trendline I told you everyone was going to be watching is probably going to be gamed a bit, it looks like near term volatility, but as I tried to imply earlier, a move above the trend line was more likely and there are still good signals that the probabilities lie there short term and it still is an environment in which I want to short in to, BUT with patience , the right set ups and the right signals, I'm not feeling rushed to get in quick, I'm feeling rushed to get a lot of ideas out to you.

 DIA as was easily predictable, above the trendline, but that provides an area for some intraday stop and limit order fishing. The 1 min chart still seems to suggest even as we see higher prices, the theme is selling in to them as the window of opportunity seems to be shutting fast.

 2 min chart has seen the 1 min chart's weakness migrate over, this is the selling in to strength, but by large institutions (also shorting) with large orders so they could be at this a while longer.

 The accrued strength of the positive divergences over the last 2 days and today that I have been talking about, as sloppy as they have been.

 And the 5 min chart, both suggest there's still upside room, remember there's no rally or counter trend move as fierce as a bear market rally/ bounce, so I'm inclined toward patience and taking the trades where the opportunities are when they are there.

 QQQ 1 min also seeing near term weakness.

 2 min seeing worse weakness as the 2 min is in a leading negative divergence.

 5 min is in line. This may mean tech is not as strong as we might assume.

 SPY 1 min also seeing weakness above the trendline.

 3 min is still positive, suggests there's still more upside even though there will probably be near term volatility as most traders focus on that trendline.

5 min chart is in line, perhaps financials are not as strong as we might think as well.

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