Two trades I'll be looking for is the USO add to and the new GLD put after the last put was closed at the lows before a reversal.
GLD is seeing some early upside action as a QE sentiment indicator on several things this morning:
A small miss in Initial Claims
The 99 week of extended benefits saw another 64k people drop-off this week
Housing Starts missed consensus by 10k coming in at 746k (however permits were up).
Then at 10 a.m. GLD got a boost as the Philly F_E_D missed consensus of -5.0, coming in at -7.1. This is the 5th consecutive miss and the 4th print coming in negative, no wonder GLD liked it.
Still, I'll be looking for a short entry in to this parabolic rise.
Still the knee jerk reaction to the bad news is good news doesn't seem to be enough to justify QE3 at the September F_O_M_C meeting, so GLD may give us a better entry, we'll just be watching for the signals.
USO is very close to making that pivot that I have been patiently waiting for, yesterday however was a bearish candle with a long upper wick as higher prices were rejected, the key here is the increased volume, a traditional and reliable reversal signal as you can see so many times in the past (this goes for all stocks on all timeframes),
GLD is happy right now, but the ultimate reality is the question, "To QE or not to QE?" and despite one day's data, the consensus even from the main cheerleaders over at GS, is, "Not this year", so GLD may give us a nice entry. I doubt GLD can rise to the next resistance level and pivot up there.
As for the candlestick/volume reversal, remember yesterday I closed 80% of the IOC Put position for a 70+% gain based on 3C signals, well it also gave the same closing candle/volume signal mentioned above and I'm glad I closed them as IOC is up 4.2% this a.m. simply on a technical move, the equity short remains in position.
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