Wednesday, September 19, 2012

FB Breakout?

If so I'm happy as the FB long position is up nearly 16% with no leverage at all, just long the stock. If not, that's fine too, maybe it will offer an opportunity to enter a low risk trade using some leverage. My first inclination would be to lean toward the answer being, "No". One of the great things about FB is it has very little correlation to the market, but in the last post you saw there's no other game in town today other than Tech among the 3 major industry groups, FB may be drafting off that.

I still think a pullback is the highest probability, but if not, then that is the reason we buy when we have signals and often in areas where emotionally its not easy to open a position. Imagine telling people that you are nearly beating the  S&P long FACEBOOK!!!

 The general base is about what I expected back in early August, it may even be a bit bigger, a pullback in FB here really does nothing at all to this base, it probably helps FB as it nears the base's neckline.

 FB intraday resistance from a head fake opening high that was faded, that area held as resistance.


 Here you can see the distribution in to the earlier head fake and a smaller negative divergence now, what is missing from this chart is any decent accumulation zone so I suspect this is a shakeout move in FB.

 3 min chart, a small accumulation area and it was in line, now a little worse.

 5 min chart has no confirmation and no decent positive divergence to send FB higher.

Same with the 15 min chart, several relative negative divergence, all through the yellow area, there's no positive divergence to justify FB making this move for real.


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