Sometimes watching intraday action too closely gives you the impression trade was either more bullish or bearish than it really was, that's getting lost in the lines, but I often do it, I just have to remind myself to step back and erase all trend lines and assumptions every once in a while and look at the issue with a new pair of eyes (usually after a day or two off).
So AAPL today shared some similarities with the S&P and NASDAQ futures, one was the close, SPY at +0.05% and the NASDAQ a bit better, but still only 0.17%, but that' not all.
The red trendline represents yesterday's close, AAPL barely closed above yesterday's close; the end of the day rout was on impressive volume.
I'm still not quite seeing the 5 min chart that I want to see before I consider AAPL at the top of the cycle, but today we saw a lot of in line or confirmation (green arrows), except toward the close (3 min).
The 1 min chart was largely in line until 12:30, but that was followed by a positive to new highs on the day, followed by a clear negative divergence in to those highs and volume picked up as AAPL made its way back to VWAP.
The next timeframe, 2 min shows the migration with the divergence coming in as a leading negative divergence on an otherwise in line day, the volume on this move and the move to VWAP was interesting, I don't say that with any bias, it was just interesting as it paralleled some other important markets.
ES (S&P mini futures) also were negative and quite so at the upper standard deviation of the weekly VWAP, ES also sold off toward the close on volume.
And it headed right for the VWAP.
NQ (NASDAQ mini Futures) also saw similar negative divergences with the closing one leading negative as NQ moved down on heavy volume...
NQ, like ES and AAPL closed at VWAP on heavy volume and a pretty strong negative divergence for that timeframe, strong enough to illicit that kind of sell-off.
Like I said, it's interesting, but I'm not going to draw conclusions from it just quite yet, as I mentioned yesterday and today, not every rally is as bullish as price would have you think and not every sell-off is a bad or bearish thing. We need to look at the whole picture and see where individual pieces fit, then they can be used for timing and tactical entries once the strategic view point is set or confirmed rather.
I will be fair and say that during most op-ex weeks we often see price fairly flat that week and often the Friday option expiration hasn't moved too much from earlier in the week, but this is quad witching with a S&P rebalancing, there are bound to be opportunities available for those who are trading beyond the speed of light, yes in fact HFTs have been clocked faster than the speed of light according to NANEX.
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