Saber Rattling or on the Brink? Either way, the market won't like it

"When the missiles fly, it's time to buy"

For now we'll leave any positioning analysis alone, the point of the above statement is to simply illustrate a long held maxim on Wall Street which demonstrates the market's absolute disdain or uncertainty.

It appears oil may have been discounting more than just the AL Qaeda Spring popping up in nearly 50 different muslim nations, cities and regions as well as a number of western diplomatic missions and US universities and power facilities.

Locations in which Muslim protests and/or violence have taken place (this is not complete as there have been similar activities in Australia, Germany and the US). Apparently my estimate of 4 new nations a day are seeing protests was a bit optimistic; I count at least 42 different locations and as mentioned Australia and Germany are not included here. Today Al Qaeda in Yemen, considered to be one of the most effective operational factions, put out another video calling for Muslims to rise up and attack US diplomats on Muslim soil. This video is similar to one released recently calling for the Libyan's to avenge the killing of a terror leader by a US drone strike in Libya in June. While the YouTube trailer for a crudely made movie that denigrates Mohammed is being blamed for the uprisings, Egyptian intelligence warned the US on September 4th of attacks to come on US and Israeli consulates and embassies. Again, while the movie is being blamed for protests, the attack in Yemen wasn't a protest gone horribly wrong and moving toward violence; the attackers were armed with RPG's and heavy mortars, attacking not only the Consulate, but also a second location in which staffers had fled leaving two dead at each site in an attack that lasted four hours.

The US response has been to send Marine FAST teams to consulates and embassies around the world, very different from the assets sent to Libya including two warships, a number of predator drones, CIA and FBI assets as well as Marine Special Forces. It seems the attack in Libya on September 11th was something far different from the spontaneous eruptions of protests world-wide as the film is being used as cover.

In addition this weekend saw approximately 500,000 Spanish protesting austerity programs in Spain and China has seen an outbreak of violence at Japanese embassies and businesses at multiple locations in China over the recent purchase of the Senkaku Islands by the Japanese from private owners. The islands have been the subject of a long standing territorial dispute between China and Japan, but they have been under Japanese Jurisdiction for decades with the US reiterating that the Islands are part of Japan and as such, fall under the US-Japanese Security Treaty. Long lasting memories of the Japense invasion of China still linger, but now the purchase of the islands have sent tensions flaring.

It should be noted that there are numerous economic indications that China is heading toward a hard landing, if there's one thing the Chinese government fear more than any foreign power, it's an uprising among their own citizens so at a time when the Chinese economic data is falling off a cliff, the age old tactic of uniting the people in a nationalistic movement against an outside entity may be at work here.

However, perhaps the most dramatic development (it's hard to compare to the Muslim protests which are like wild-fire), comes to us tonight from the UK's Telegrapgh

Armada of British naval power massing in the Gulf as Israel prepares an Iran strike

Battleships, aircraft carriers, minesweepers and submarines from 25 nations are converging on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented show of force as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war.

Western leaders are convinced that Iran will retaliate to any attack by attempting to mine or blockade the shipping lane through which passes around 18 million barrels of oil every day, approximately 35 per cent of the world’s petroleum traded by sea.

When it rains it pours, but these are each pieces of the puzzle and may help us understand some recent events and better position for them.

More analysis and information will be forthcoming...