Natural Gas / EIA / UNG

Yesterday it looked as if UNG, which is otherwise looking pretty good, may be about to pullback a bit. The EIA report came and went, I don't think it has much to do with price action in UNG though as a pullback already looked set. I see this as another opportunity in UNG to establish new longs or add to existing positions as UNG is the only CORE long position in the equities model portfolio. We'll want to look at buying on positive divergences in to a pullback.

The Thursday EIA Natural gas report was released at 10:30 today...

Released On 9/13/2012 10:30:00 AM For wk9/7, 2012

Actual Weekly Change 27 bcf

The injection of 27 bcf wasn't far off consensus of 25 bcf so I doubt it had too much to do with today's move.

Here's what UNG looked like at the release of the data at 10:30.

 UNG had already gapped down on the open, the smaller red arrow is the EIA release.

 We've been paying attention to UNG as a probable primary trend base looks to be completed and awaiting stage 2 mark up.

 The hourly chart's longer term view looks quite positive.

 Here are a couple of charts from 3 min to 15 min. that suggested a UNG pullback.

 15 min

 The red trendlines depict the base's shape thus far. I have a daily Trend Channel which is a little too narrow for a Primary trend stop, but it looks about right for a pullback, I don't envision much more than this which likely will create some buying opportunities.

Back to the hourly chart, the very positive bias here suggests the pullback will be constructive, meaning we should see accumulation in to the pullback which is what we want to see to enter or add to long positions here.