Tuesday, September 18, 2012

PCLN Check-up

PCLN is another core short, this one I'll be keeping open.

 PCLN was a short opened in this area at $761.79 on a head fake move, it saw a huge gap down day of over 17% in a single day, I should probably have taken at least partial profits there and re-opened the closed partial profits somewhere in this area as it reaches to fill the gap.

 A closer look at the entry, this is a small descending wedge consolidation/continuation pattern which traders expect to break out to the upside and then put in a new leg roughly the same size as the previous leg before the wedge, which would have meant a a substantial move of perhaps 200+ points, but we saw something different.

 A negative divergence on a 60 min chart as PCLN broke out, dragging a slew of new long positions with it. As the breakout failed, the downside momentum really picked up as is often the case with failed moves. I saw no reason to exit PCLN as it consolidated laterally as the 3C chart continued to deteriorate then it gapped down over 17% in a day, since we have seen a move to fill the gap. There's a negative divergence on this chart on the gap fill move.

 The 15 min chart showing the gap fill has been deteriorating in to higher prices.

 The 10 min chart is also deteriorating on post F_O_M_C data with a quick run of the limit orders this morning.

 The trend of the 3 min chart has been in line with price for most of the gap fill, that ha broke off and turned negative.

 A closer look at the 3 min chart in what appears to be a tower top-type formation. I'd be considering adding to this as a short had I taken partial profits at the gap down day. As it stands now, I'd wait for a break and then try to short the first bounce so long as everything remained conducive to a short trade.

The 2 min trend is doing the same as the 3 min, confirming and recently changing with a leading negative divergence as the gap area is approached.

I'll set some price alerts if any one is interested in a possible PCLN short position or add to as for the core short established already, I'll leave it in place.

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