Tuesday, September 18, 2012

UNG's pullback looks complete

This is one of my favorite primary trend longs, meaning a longer term position that appears to be ending stage 1 (base-accumulation) and preparing to move to Stage 2 (Mark-up or trending) and judging by the formation of the base, I'd say UNG has a solid platform from which to launch a trend higher. This is one of those stocks I am very patient with, it reminds me a lot of BPT (BP Prudhoe Bay Royal Trust) which I bought in 2000 as Bush II came in to power, with the former CEO of Halliburton as the VP and an oil man as the President, it seemed logical that oil was going higher. I held BPT making a nice 12% dividend around the time I bought it, but I didn't hold long enough; I ended up selling at about $30, my Uncle who worked for Morgan Stanley who also bought it on my recommendation still has it today at $94.00 all the while collecting what is now a 9.9% dividend or about $9.31 a year which is close to what we bought it for! Since then I developed the Trend Channel so my stops on trending stocks like this would never again be arbitrary or out of fear, but based on something real and tangible that suggests a change in direction.

I think UNG may just have the capability to put in similar gains, less the divy.

 We were looking for, as always with UNG, a constructive pullback and it seems we got one. The 10-day moving average held on a new long signal as the first pullback with a Doji/Morning Star candle at the 10 day.

 The 1 min chart shows why the pullback was constructive, there's a positive divergence in to the pullback so it seems UNG is gathering strength on the pullback which is what it needs in this area to move to stage 2.

 The 10 min chart makes the trend more clear.

 The hourly chart shows the improving underlying trade since the base was started to the present, where it appears to be about finished.

 On a Swing basis, the 1 day Trend Channel works fine, the stop would be around $19 right now, I prefer a wider stop as I look at this as a longer term position.

The 5 day Trend Channel held the entire downtrend and has thus far held the entire base despite the volatility, the stop is around $17.75, but it will continue to lock in gains and rise.

I still like UNG very much in this area.

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