Probabilities

As per the last post, the probabilities of a scenario as described revolvig mainly around tech look even more realistic toward the close. I'll put the charts up after the close, but the SPY, DIA, IWM are all showing late day positive divergences , like yesterday, but on very limited timeframes. Essentially they are not broad, strong divergences, but they'd be enough to gap the market. I believe that is the most likely outcome with a probable fading of the gap. Almost the exact same parameters apply as yesterday, "if" the market gaps up, especially strongly, then there won't be any time/opportunity to add to the divergence and make for a stronger move and fading the move becomes more and more likely as the day wears on. "IF" the market opens neutral or even down, then there's time to add to the divergence, I'm not exactly sure what time the German Court ruling comes down, but I'd think before the NY open, so it will likely have a lot to do with how the market opens, which mean watching the Euro and futures overnight to get an idea.

From the longer term charts or even intermediate, there's a lot of damage and there's not much in the way of any underlying strength, that can only really come if the market doesn't open strong or on a gap.

It looks like tomorrow will provide us with some opportunities to enter those timely trades.

Charts coming.