AAPL Update

OK, here's the full update so there's no confusion on where I stand on AAPL.

 AAPL from healthy volume and price to the F_E_D sugar high. 2012 in particular is a parabolic move higher and these never end well, I was looking for a U shaped reversal from the move up on this chart and we just about have it.

If I had to pick a position in AAPL now and not touch it for a year, I would be full on short, no question about it. We try to work with the market a little more nimbly though.

 AAPL's H&S was too obvious, this needs a good shakeout on the upside and it's one of the main reasons I think the market will see the same. Earnings seem like they should be the catalyst, but we've seen stranger things happen (remember RIMM?)

 Here's the bearish descending triangle that shorts should be looking at now, they seem to be waiting for earnings as the break below support didn't raise much volume today.

 The next break of support is this hammer at the white trendline.

 AAPL 1 min today seems to be positive on these probes below support which would make sense from a head fake point of view, this is why I'm in short term speculative calls in AAPL for an upside move.

 The 3 min chart is very unique in AAPL, in fact so much so, look at it again below with no annotations.

 That's an odd change in character in 3C, the last time was a top.

 The 5 min chart since last week's high is leading positive as we move closer to earnings.

 While there aren't any long term positive divergences as I do not expect a long term move up, the 30 min chart has at least a relative positive divergence.

As far as my real longer term, highest probability feeling on AAPL, this 2 hour 3C chart shows a leading negative divergence hitting a new low, it also shows the accumulation around May when I said, "I think there will be 1 major accumulation period in AAPL and then they'll sell in to that and go short before AAPL fails". So far, that's been right on.