AMZN Analysis

I believe AMZN reports after the bell tonight along with AAPL, obviously we have two major fulcrum events fro the market tomorrow.

As far as AMZN goes and I will update AAPL before the close, here's what I see both long term, short term and earnings related.

 Long term AMZN's trade was much healthier in the white area dates, since 2009 we have seen a large move, not as big as the move in white (on a log chart you'd see that), but still volume is way off and it looks like the sugar high, liquidity induced rally that it actually was. At some point the house of cards comes crashing down.

 As for the 2009 trend, we have an upside channel buster, if you recall, while this looks bullish on momentum, it is actually bearish as volatility always is a sign of a top over a long chart like this. From the channel buster AMZN went straight to the bottom of the LNR Channel, the red move is something we see OFTEN before a channel buster like this just falls to pieces.

 On a daily chart I'm thinking that AMZN will pull a similar volatility shakeout as it did in early October, there just weren't that many shorts on a small decline like that to see any real upside shakeout volatility, we have it now with a larger top that HAS broken.

 The daily 3C chart interestingly goes leading negative (rare on daily charts to get such an extreme signal) exactly at the upside channel buster, in other words, that's where distribution started in earnest on demand at the move higher through the channel or what would have appeared very bullish at the time.

 Closer, which is where we are looking at AMZN, the 15 min chart shows the break of the top and a recent positive divergence.

 On a 10 min chart with better details, we also see a relative, then a stronger leading positive divergence, note the leading is in the same area as the rest of our market range, THIS WEEK!

 On a 3 min chart we have a leading positive that is mostly from this week's range in the market, not as much in AMZN.

For this reason it is difficult to say this is earnings related when most of the market is acting this way.

 2 min chart's trend also leading positive starting late Friday afternoon just as we saw in the market around 2 pm last Friday and through this week.

1 min chart the same, through late Friday and leading positive. I would guess that the response to earnings is positive, but I can't say for sure as these are the same signals seen throughout the market.

Even today's intraday 1 min chart is leading positive like much of the rest of the market. I'm thinking whether AMZN beats or not, they will see the volatility shakeout soon and that's where I want to short AMZN.

If anything interesting pops up before the close, I'll post it.