Monday, November 12, 2012

BIDU Trade (long)

I think BIDU can be traded with equities or options, obviously there's some risk:reward differences, but the point being is I think even without the leverage, BIDU is still a worthwhile long and without the leverage, much easier to manage from a risk perspective.

BIDU was one of our core short positions we entered back in April after it made a head fake upside breakout which we used to short BIDU, I believe the average entry was in the $147 area, that's only a few points away from the top. It also provided a nice percentage gain as a core short that was eventually closed as we saw the probability of a counter-trend move to the upside as being very high and that move came.

Here are the charts, I believe there are several trades here depending on how patient you are.

 On a daily chart, ultimately I think BIDU is a great short opportunity... eventually. I can't see this kind of damage on a daily chart being fixed without this stock giving up something probably approaching about 75% of its price, but that's another post-just so you are aware.

 The 15 min chart is a respectable timeframe for a decent size trade and that's where the BIDU long originates, a positive divergence (leading) on the 15 min chart after it has gone through the process, the steps...

 Closer, the 5 min chart is leading positive, this to me is kind of like the rocket being fueled up.

 The 3 min chart is also leading positive

 And the 2 min, after putting in a few intraday head fake upside moves saw a clean and clear negative divergence sending BIDU to the area in which I believe market makers are stocking up for a trade they likely filled for a much bigger client.

 The 2 min chart zoomed in looks like it's in line with price, but it's really leading positive by a lot, it was in line at Friday morning.

Here's the 1 min, this is why I said only a half position, I'll wait until this goes positive and try to open the second half.

One thing I see intraday that may be of some interest for price alerts....
Although the range was taken out around $105.90 and thus this could be considered a head fake move, it's not as deep as I would expect on a eyeball scaling basis, meaning just taking a look at the scale and getting a gut feel, the break lower wasn't a big emotional event as far as I can tell so with the triangle-like price pattern in place, a break below the apex is one area, below a tweezer bottom support area is another and finally below the triangle itself is another.

I think the 1 min chart should give us an idea of when the downside move is wrapping up.



No comments: