Market Opinion

Friday, especially after the afternoon TICK update I started getting a gut feeling that this was a good place to stage a reversal. For one, the size of the range through October/November was large enough to give us the kind of upside reversal that would be necessary as Wall Street doesn't run any cycle without a good reason, in this case it would be to chase out new shorts and they'd need to move the market convincingly and overwhelm emotions on the short side so they over-take rationale.

The area where the suspected head fake appeared, the time and events it appeared after and the size of it are just about right when considering the scale of the range that preceded it.

Today a low volume ramp would be easily dismissible with the bond markets closed, but price is price, a loss is a loss and a margin call is a margin call; after all the entire 2009-2012 rally was a low volume ramp.

Dismissing any move up today on the account of volume and markets would be a potentially very dangerous mistake, especially considering the probability that the head fake move is in and those tend to be the last event in the chain of events leading to a reversal.

So far this a.m., even the dump from 10:43 still has failed to move the TICK in to any extreme territory.

This may be an interesting day, not much is expected from the Euro-Group Fin-Min meeting anyway.