GRPN Earnings Follow Up

I showed you GRPN earlier today, they report tonight. What we look for in an earnings play in something way out of place as in the entire market is moving up and ha 3C confirmation and the stock in question is moving up with heavy distribution and leading negative divergences in most timeframes, then we know something is not right, we have a likely leak.

Lately we've been looking at a few and have had a lot of them right, but they weren't earning's plays based on leaks, they weren't even earnings plays, they were best guesses. These have been coming through pretty accurately lately, but it is more based on what I'd call conventional analysis than seeing a leak.

I don't like to play earnings at all, I never use to because you don't have an edge, it's a wild card that market perception can take either way no matter what the earnings are. We only started playing some when I did the quarter of earnings to show you there are leaks and we had something like 95% right, those were real leaks.

I don't think what I see in GRPN is a leak, but it is more positive than I'd expect. As with AMZN, don't go by the after hours or pre-market reaction, we called AMZN positive and it was down 12% in AH, but up 7% the next day in regular trade.

Really not much has changed since I showed you GRPN this morning, I personally wouldn't take the trade, but that's up to you.

 The 5 min shows a recent change in character, although so does price, but 3C is more positive than the change in price and this kind of flat area is where we usually see positive divergences.

The 15 min chart is what is interesting about GRPN. Based on this and best guess, I'd say GRPN reacts well to earnings tomorrow.