Friday, November 23, 2012

Opening Indications

NOTHING has changed since Tuesday in my opinion of what comes next in this cycle, it can be demonstrated with 4 charts of the SPY/S&P-500, oh and by the way, I think I was right about the trade action on Wednesday which seemed very much like the invisible hand of the PPT was holding the market up just enough that it wouldn't close red and later that day after the close, I heard on the radio and TV as I thought and told you we would, that the market was performing great on the week, they went through all of the averages being up on Wednesday and I just kept thinking to myself, "It didn't matter if they closed up 1% or .10% as long as they weren't red and the whole 4 day winning streak could be drug out in front of Black Friday shopping. With light volume on Wednesday, even the offers of retail could have sent the market lower with the guardians at the Hamptons, 33 Liberty Street doesn't sleep and I'd say I'm 95% sure that green close was to prevent the news and radio from telling everyone on Wednesday the market was down -1% just before Black Friday or Thursday as it has now become as retailers know the Consumer situation isn't good.


As for the SPY charts (and other averages are pretty much the same)...

 Where it counts, on longer charts like the 10 min the positive divergence at the lows is clear and so is the overall bullish positioning of 3C right now, this represents the larger trend.

 The more important 15 min chart is leading positive, even more important for the trend and cycle up, but in the very near term on a shorter term basis...

 Charts like the 1 min intraday didn't confirm the gap up again today...

Nor did the 3 min or 5 min, all shorter timeframes of less consequence, but all suggesting a pullback before the next major leg up that holds in the trend, this is where we'll find some opportunities.

I SERIOUSLY doubt that we would see the pullback today with the pullback accumulated and ready to go for Monday so in my opinion, unless something big happens in underlying trade today, it really doesn't matter where we close, the charts are pretty clear that the near term trade will see a consolidation/pullback and the longer term charts say that it will be bought/accumulated for the next leg up, and that is where we'll find the next batch of opportunities, although the leveraged longs that were opened over the last few weeks as the cycle developed are all remaining open for this trend, it's just the more leveraged call positions like the AAPL and GOOG positions that made between +12% and +115% this week )and in 1 day) that this will effect.


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