Thursday, December 27, 2012

FAZ- Short Financials, not only a trade, but an indication

I had a lot of charts I wanted to get to today, AMZN, LULU, etc. but I should have known today was going to keep me busy as I said it last week, "Thursday is when we should see the most volatility".

In any case, I was just looking at FAZ and not only can I update it, but it seems to be another good example of the multiple trends (today's volatility is not a trend). I'm not going to go too far as to confuse everyone with 4 different trends, but at least 2 are still obvious and the 3rd fits in nicely as well. This should also help you with knowing when, how and where you might want to position in Financials or FAZ in particular.

I will say that I expected there to be downside volatility at the republican press conference or conference call this afternoon, I kind of wonder whether the market front-ran that event, kind of like buy the rumor, sell the news except in reverse.

Try to think of the charts below and the timeframes keeping in mind the market averages and other charts and their timeframes.

Remember, FAZ is a 3x leveraged SHORT Financials ETF.

 1 min is leading negative, compare to the market averages 1 min leading positive, that is confirmation between the two, if the market moves up we expect FAZ to move down, but also remember the move up we are looking for is a short move, it may be very strong, but short in duration.


 2 min chart also leading negative

 3 min chart also leading negative and reminds me of one of the charts of the averages I just posted, except almost a mirror opposite.

 Around the 5 min timeframe is where things get a bit more mellow, in my view, this is what separates the short term (move up) from the longer term move down and I'm talking about a move down probably below the 11/16 lows to complete this cycle.


 It may seem strange, but this is an example of the different trends, all of the sudden just as the market charts go negative in the 10 min range, FAZ is positive, that again is confirmation and speaks to the longer term move (down for the market/up for FAZ). If this plays out this way, FAZ should be able to be bought at lower levels with even better looking charts.


 FAZ 15 min leading positive over the course of the 11/16 cycle, again this fits perfectly with the marketaveregs' leading negative 15 min charts, remember FAZ is a bear ETF.

Now I'll stop after this, but once we get a new low, we do have even longer term indications of a large base. A new low could very well set up that longer term trend to the upside.

FAZ at 30 min is not positive, but in line, essentially this may be where that even longer term uptrend plays out and FAZ would not do well in that scenario.

This is what I mean by at least 3-4 trends all converging and they can play off each other, very interesting.

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