Thursday, December 27, 2012

HLF Follow Up

Here are a few charts that may help you in deciding how to handle HLF and whether you want to. You may recall from yesterday in this post, I wanted to see something pretty specific.

This is what I wanted to see...
 I wanted to see price consolidate or pullback a bit and this 15 min chart, which is a pretty heavy duty timeframe for a short squeeze, to move to a new high following the orange arrow, but this morning's early move didn't allow enough time for that to happen.


 Late yesterday in the last hour and a half the 1 min chart went positive as it pulled back, that's positive for the open and it could be positive for the longer charts if the divergence (positive) migrates through longer timeframes. (White=positive divergences, Green = in line or confirmation of the 3C/price trend)

 On the 3 min chart the initial damage done yesterday that prompted me to warn about HLF and taking profits yesterday, is in line now, but the positive divergence from the 1 min chart hasn't turned the longer 3 min positive, which is part of the process I'd like to have seen, it doesn't mean HLF can't still move forward with a short squeeze, it just makes the probabilities look better.

 The next timeframe, 5 mins. has seen a little repair from yesterday, but it's still in a negative position, it must first move to in line with price and then to a positive divergence before much will happen on the 15 min chart and really make this look like the fantastic set up that I described late yesterday.

 Early trade in HLF looks more like a short squeeze than it did at any time yesterday, at least until this first pullback. A short squeeze will have few pullbacks, really almost none and volume you might expect to be high, but it's usually about average.


I would pay attention (at least for the first several hours or until something solid is established, to the 50 bar 5 min chart, it told us when (actually 3C did, but it did a good job too) to get out of HLF and when to get back in. I don't care for moving averages, but other traders watch them so it makes them relevant.

I'll update HLF as I see developments that have some meaning.

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