Monday, December 31, 2012

Volatility is still confirming Trend 1

There's a VERY weak positive divergence only in the intraday 1 min volatility futures (VXX/UVXY), this would signify an intraday (small) move lower in the market, IF there's no news that runs it over.

As far as the evidence I showed you earlier today regarding trend 1, the pop higher, volatility continues to confirm the other evidence (both presented over a longer period and today).

 1 min positive, suggests volatility moves up intraday, but this is the weakest of all the signals, and doesn't suggest much of a move, more a jiggle.

 2 min is perfectly in line

 3 min is leading negative, this would suggest volatility futures have more downside, the market moves opposite these futures, this is the reason for the call positions, the last was opened Friday in the QQQ.

 10 min in a deeper leading negative divergence, this is an important timeframe.

BONUS CHARTS-remember that we expect trend 1 to be shorter lived relative to 2 and 3, (2 is down and 3 is back up). Volatility on longer charts is in line and confirming trend 2, that would be a market decline and volatility moving up.



 60 min leading positive divergence

 2  hour leading positive, LOOK at that change in character!


And the 4 hour, no drawings needed, this is a big time move up in volatility, that is a big time move down in the market, that's still trend 2, trend 1 needs to play out first.

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