The strong beat in Initial Claims this morning was in part due to the BLS estimating the numbers for Hawaii, Virginia and get this, California, the most populated state in the US. The BLS just guessed at what their data would be due to the holiday shortened week. Well that's one way to get a beat and when they revise it next week no one will care.
However there's no escaping this one, as you know the Philly F_E_D, the Empire State and the Richmond F_E_D all are in contraction and at levels (in most cases) not seen since 2009. Today the Kansas City F_E_D joins them in moving in to contraction.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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