Friday, March 8, 2013

GLD Update

If it wouldn't violate risk management rules, I'd add to GLD here, I see it as a very high probability, low risk position here.

First as for the probabilities, both GLD and gold futures are on the same course.

 5 min Gold futures showing accumulation on the stop run this a.m.

 Remember the futures 3C divergences are bigger than the equity ones so this 60 min positive is more like a 4 hour in GLD.

 GLD's 15 min leading positive on what I think is probably a larger base than just this rounding one, but even if it's only the rounding, it's still a solid divergence.

 GLD 4 hour has been on track through all of these signals, you can see here why I suspect it might be bigger than what we have been looking at recently.

 We even have a daily positive which is rare.

If I use today's lows that's still only 1% risk from here, actually less, I can invest an entire portfolio with at least a 3% stop without ever violating the 2% rule, probably bigger so I think you can have a stop even wider, still max position size and still come no where near violating the 2% rule (no more than 2% loss of portfolio on any one position with no more than 15% of portfolio invested in any one position).

This is actually a really nice looking area for an entry.

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